Rain

Read the materials on weather prediction.

Problems

1. What do you make of all this?

2. What does Marilyn means when she says, `But rain doesn't obey the laws of chance; instead it obeys the laws of science.'

3. If the POP is 30% and it rains, was the forecaster correct?

4. Suppose that Minneapolis gets precipitation 3 days out of 10 over the long haul. Why not report a POP of 30% every single day?

5. San Diego county is spread out over a large area, comprising the coastal strip and inland valleys, the mountains, and the deserts. Separate forecasts are given for each region. Suppose, however, that the weather bureau computes a single POP for the whole area. On days on which this composite POP is 20%, what is the probability that a randomly selected resident of San Diego county will get rained on?

6. What do you think is the correct answer to the Reader reader's question?

7. There are contests to reward the best predictor of the weather. If you were running such a contest, how would you decide the winner?