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\centerline {\bf SCI~199Y: ``Lies, damned lies, and statistics"}
\centerline {from the First Year Seminar Handbook}
\bigskip

The title of the course is a quotation attributed to Disraeli, a
British statesman of the nineteenth century.  Does it still apply
today?  This course will consider how statistics and statistical
thinking get used (and abused) in a variety of activities,
including polling, public health, marketing, advertising, lotteries.
Some questions that will be addressed are:
Why do newspapers report a ``margin of error'' for poll results, and
what does it mean?  How can graphs and charts provide information
(or misinformation)?  What makes a good graph?  How do new cancer
drugs get tested, and why doesn't the same protocol work for AIDS?
How do studies on mice get extrapolated to humans, and do the results
make any sense? What is quality control, and why is it currently
so fashionable in North American industry?

\pagebreak

\noindent{\bf Examples of `current' interest in which statistical thinking
is a relevant component}
\begin{itemize}
\item O.J. Simpson trial
\item closing the fisheries in Newfoundland
\item polling results for Quebec's vote on sovereignty
\item Harris' policy on employment equity
\item discovery of a new Alzheimer's gene
\item Statistics Canada will include a question on race in the next census
(Globe and Mail, Monday Sept. 10, 1995)
\end{itemize}

\bigskip
\noindent{\bf What's required in this course -- what you'll do}
\begin{itemize}
\item regular attendance, participation and discussion (15\%)
\item lots of reading
\item copy of Tufte's book {\it The Visual Display of Quantitative Information}
({\it VDQI})
\item class presentations (2) of approximately 15 minutes (15\%)
\item short projects regularly (approximately 6 in total) (30\%)
\item final essay (40\%)
\end{itemize}

\bigskip
\noindent{\bf What's offered in this course -- what I'll do}
\begin{itemize}
\item organize discussion around selected themes
\item provide background information
\item provide directions to further material for reading
\item try to keep discussion lively and topical
\item try not to get too technical
\item provide a sample solution for the first short project, before it's due
\item provide guidelines for the final essay
\item hold office hours Tuesday 2-3 and Thursday 3-4 (SS6006)
\end{itemize}

\bigskip
\noindent{\bf How will the course be organized}

We will consider between five and ten themes for discussion, background, and
further investigation.  These will be selected from current topics according
to interests of the class participants,
and may consider any of the topics already mentioned in this outline, and any
of the following:  statistics in sports (is there a hot streak in basketball,
how are tennis players seeded, what would have been the outcome of the 94
World Series, is figure skating judging fair, ...); how to assess risks
(should bicycle helmets be required, do power lines cause cancer, ...);
probability in everyday life (the Monty Hall problem, picking winning 
lottery numbers,..); environment vs. heredity ({\it The Bell Curve}, 
twin studies, genetics and crime);  ...  Please feel free to suggest
other topics for consideration, and be warned that you will be asked
about your preferences for choice of topics.

The first theme which will be treated in depth is the use of pictures 
(usually graphs) to display numerical
information.  Because numbers are often difficult
to assimilate, especially if there are a lot of them, and because statistics
is often considered to be very mysterious, many popular accounts in newspapers,
magazines, and so on summarize information with some type
of graphic.  This can be done
well or badly, as we will see, and there is a scholarly field of inquiry into
how to do it well.

\bigskip
\noindent{\bf Sources of information}
\begin{itemize}
\item daily newspapers: pick your favourite; fairly good discussions of
science issues appear in the {\it New York Times}, {\it The Times}, and the {\it Globe and Mail}.
\item magazines: {\it Chance}, {\it New Yorker}, {\it Saturday Night}, {\it Scientific American},
{\it Science}, {\it Nature}, {\it J. Amer. Medical Assoc.}, {\it New England J. Medicine}, {\it Lancet},...
\item books: 
\begin{description}
\item[] {\it Visual Display of Quantitative Information}, E. Tufte [required]
\item[] {\it The Bell Curve}, R. Herrndorff and C. Murray
\item{} {\it Statistics: Concepts and Controversies}, D. Moore
\item[] {\it Statistics: A Guide to the Unknown}, J. Tanur et al.
\end{description}
\end{itemize}
More specific reading lists will be provided for each theme.

\pagebreak

\noindent{\bf Required for next week}
\begin{itemize}
\item Find a graph in a newspaper article that interests you. Bring 
a copy of the graph and accompanying article to class.
\item Find out where you can read/borrow/buy current issues of
the {\it New York Times}, {\it The Times}, the {\it Washington Post} and the {\it Globe and Mail}
\item Find out where you can read/borrow/buy current issues of {\it Chance},
{\it New Yorker}, {\it Saturday Night}, {\it Scientific American} and
{\it Lancet}
\item Read the chapter on ``Graphical Excellence'' in {\it VDQI}.  (Feel free
to start on p.16: pp.13--15 have a few tedious technical bits.) Come to class
prepared to note the parts you didn't follow, and the parts you found particularly
interesting.
\end{itemize}

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