Class 15: Streaks
Discussion
Look at the page of sequences of 1's and 0's (hits and misses). They represent three
different kinds of behavior:
(a) "streaky" behavior where a hit is more likely to be followed by a hit and a miss
is more likely to be followed by a miss.
(b) "random" behavior, where a hit is equally likely to be followed by a hit or
a miss and a miss is equally likely to be followed by a hit or a miss.
(c) "alternating" behavior, where a hit is more likely to be followed by a miss and
a miss is more likely to be followed by a hit.
Mark each sequence of twenty 1's and 0's to indicate whether the sequence represents
type (a), (b), or (c) behavior.
If you wanted to develop a test to see if a sequence represented streaky behavior,
what properties of a wequence would you use for your test?
Read the article " 'Hot hands' phenomenon: a myth?". What do you think?
Journal Assignment
Check out the cookie data, available (soon) on the Web or in the JMP 3.1.1 folder
on the Courseware Server. Is there a correlation between cost and taste? Is there
anything else interesting going on?