Assignment 5

Discussion

Read the materials on weather prediction.

1. What do you make of all this?
2. What does Marilyn means when she says, `But rain doesn't obey the laws of chance; instead it obeys the laws of science.'
3. If the POP is 30% and it rains, was the forecaster correct?
4. Suppose that Hanover gets precipitation 3 days out of 10 over the long haul. Why not report a POP of 30% every single day?
5. Grafton County is spread out over a large area, made up of valleys and mountains. Separate forecasts could be given for the different parts of Grafton County. Suppose, however, that the weather bureau computes a single POP for the whole area. On days on which this composite POP is 20%, what is the probability that a randomly selected resident of Grafton County will get rained on?
6. What do you think is the correct answer to the Reader reader's question?
7. There are contests to reward the best predictor of the weather. If you were running such a contest, how would you decide the winner?
8. Certain meteorological events are rare, but very important in terms of safety and property risk (e.g., tornadoes, extreme snowfalls). How would you evaluate forecasts of such events?

Homework assignments for Tuesday October 11

Read Chapter 8 in FPPA. Do review exercises on page 129 problems 1, 2, 4, 9

Journal Assignment for Tuesday October 11

How has your faith in the reliability of weather forecasting been effected by Harold Brooks discussion of weather predicting.