Assignment 11

Discussion

Read the article ``Induced abortion hikes breast cancer risk, study says" from the October 27 Los Angeles Times.

1. According to this study, what is the relative risk of developing breast cancer by age 45 for a women who has an induced abortion?
2. What is the attributable risk of developing breast cancer by age 45 for a women who has an induced abortion?
3. What additional information would you want to have to judge the validity of this study?
4. The Valley News ran this story with the headline ``New Study Links Induced Abortion With Breast Cancer" and cut the story off essentially at the end of our first page. Did these changes seriously effect the reporting of this study?

Homework assignments for Thursday November 3

Read Chapter 20 in FPPA and do review exercises on page 340 # 2, 4, 7,11

Journal Assignment for Thursday November 3

Record in your journals your answers to the following questions.

1. Yesterday's New York times reported the results of the latest poll for the race for Governor of New York. The report ``Among all registered voters, Mr. Cuomo leads Mr. Pataki in the poll by a 44 percent to 34 percent margin, with Mr. Golisano receiving 7 percent and Robert T. Walsh, the Right to Life Party nominee, receiving 3 percent. Ten percent said they were undecided.

   What odds would you give that Cuomo wins in New York?

2. Here is how New York Times describes how the survey was conducted:

   HOW THE SURVEY WAS CONDUCTED

   The latest New York Times/ WCBS-TV News Poll is based on telephone interviews conducted Wednesday through Saturday with 1,411 adults throughout New York State. Of these, 1,012 said they were registered to vote.

   The random sample of telephone numbers was provided by Survey Sampling of Fairfield, Conn.

   Within each household one adult was chosen at random to be the respondent. The results have been weighted to account for household size and number of telephone lines, as well as for variations relating to region, race, sex, age and education.

   Results about respondents' intended votes have also been weighted to reflect the statewide distribution of ballots in recent elections from New York City (31 percent), its suburbs (24 percent), and the rest of the state (45 percent).

   According to statistical theory, in 19 out of 20 cases the results based on such samples will differ by no more than 3 percentage points in either direction from a survey of all registered voters in New York State.

   Do you think the average New York Times reader will understand what all this means? Do you? See if you can explain what they are saying in a way that your Uncle George might understand.